When it comes to the future, don't calculate. Create. 

By Rodney J. Johnson, Prescient Consulting, Inc.

December 2005 

It is hallowed tradition that every good discussion of strategy, philosophy, logic, or morality must include a chess analogy. There is no reason this article should be any different. After all, chess players are in a privileged position to teach us about strategy and strategic thinking. One of the things that have attracted people through the centuries to chess was that the rules of the game, strategy, and tactics, are uniquely unmuddled. Strategy would seem to be a clear cut business for chess players since there is exactly zero chance, risk, or unknown in the game. With perfect vision the chess player can attain perfect insight and perfect foresight. With perfect vision of the board, the chess player can actually become god of all he surveys - exercising perfect control and execution. The chess player's fate is completely in his hands.

Unfortunately, the key words are with perfect vision. Even though the board is sitting right in front of our eyes, for most, it might as well be covered with a steel box. So opaque are the realities of the strategic situation we are faced with. So obscure are the roads we should take to deal with it.  Why is this? In essence, the situation is too complex to deal with. Even without chance, there are simply too many issues to face to make a good decision. The numbers of possibilities we are confronted with are too large for our eyes, and our brains, to deal with.

A quick look at the kinds of numbers involved gives us a sense of the magnitude of our task. There are 64 squares on the board. While this doesn't seem like a lot, if we were to put one checker on the first square, two on the second, and four on the third, doubling the checkers all the way to the 64th square, we would have 2 to the 64th power checkers by the last square. If we assume these checkers are a half-inch thick, we would have enough of these checkers to reach the edge of the solar system more than 40,000 times. And that is just the squares, what about all the potential moves?  Mathematicians tell us there are more possible moves in a game of chess than atoms in the universe.

Business, with all of its risk and chance must be still more complicated. Business has so many more dimensions. It involves grasping amorphous ideas rather than clear cut rules, building coalitions with 'buy in' rather than imposing strict control. It involves managing rather than solving. In the business world, surety is a luxury no one ever enjoys. Yet, just as there are those people who do play chess extremely well there are also people who seem to never make a bad move in business. Are these people human computers calculating every possible move and countermove all the way forward into the future? The press call them geniuses, visionaries, and prophets, but are they really? How is it that they are able to make good decisions time and time again? Do they know something we don't?